Net migration has cooled considerably compared to last year. 2023 was the year of migration, when monthly net inflows averaged over 10k. The annual net inflow peaked at 142k. Today, monthly net migration remains positive but has slowed to an average pace of just 3.5k. According to Stats NZ’s latest account, a net 3k permanent and long-term migrants arrived in July, taking the annual total to 67k. That’s quite the drop in just a matter of months. On a rolling 3 month basis, net inflows have fallen to below pre-covid levels – again, highlighting the slowdown in 2024.
Annual migrant arrivals have fallen to around 200k from 214k in July 2023, but it is the record rise in departures that explains the slowdown in net inflows. In the 12months to July, departures totalled 133k – the highest on record. Departures fell in July, but we caution from calling a turning point as the data is still provisional. Nonetheless, the net outflow of Kiwi, in particular, is sitting at a record high (80.7k) and will likely continue rising. Just as was the case in the fallout of the GFC, our labour market is deteriorating faster and deeper than across the Tasman.
Earlier this year, we forecast annual net migration to fall and stabilise at around 40k by year-end. However, there is risk that net inflows continue to head south, and may return to a net outflow in 2025.
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