Net migration has cooled considerably compared to last year. 2023 was the year of migration, when monthly net inflows averaged over 10k. The annual net inflow peaked at 136k (revised down from 142K). Today, monthly net migration remains positive but has slowed to an average pace of under 3k in 2024. According to Stats NZ’s latest account, a net 2,310 permanent and long-term migrants arrived in September, taking the annual total to a little under 45k. That’s a steep drop in short amount of time. On a rolling 3month basis, net inflows have fallen to below pre-covid levels – again, highlighting the slowdown in 2024.
Annual migrant arrivals have stabilised, albeit at levels still sitting above pre-covid. Despite this, it is the record rise in departures that explains the sharp slowing in net migration. In the year to September 2024, 133k migrant departures were recorded with Kiwi making up the bulk (60%). Around 25k Kiwi have returned to the nest, but the net outflow of 54.7k is a record high. The rise in departures is a mix of covid catch-up as well as the pull of better job prospects abroad. The latter likely explains the recent lift in the number of non-NZ citizens leaving the country as well.
And Stats NZ estimates that most are packing up and shipping out to Australia, no doubt pulled by a stronger jobs market. However, we may be nearing the peak. On a monthly basis, Kiwi departures have slowed - from the highs of over 7k at the start of the year, to around 6k in the last three months. We may see the annual total continue to print record highs, but the large outflows earlier this year will soon drop out of the calculations.
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